South Africa's "National" Sports

While football, baseball and basketball rule in the USA as the most popular spectator sports, South Africa also prides itself as a sport-loving country, but with a very different line up. And this summer, the Rainbow Nation will join the UK as the only other country to have scored a trifecta in hosting the World Cups of rugby (1995), cricket (2003), and soccer (2010).

Gotta Get Rand!

The South African currency is called the rand (abbreviated "R" or "ZAR") and is currently trading at $1 = 7.59 ZAR (or 1 ZAR = .13). As you can see, the colorful bills come in denominations of 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 rand.

Academic Rigor, Anyone?

To disabuse readers of any notion that "Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa" is anywhere near a gut course, one need only know that the students -- under the tutelage of Dr. Dan Covell -- were required to read three books*, write two response papers, research and present on a course-related topic, submit a post-trip assessment of findings, and actively participate in in-country events and activities. Happily, most of the assignments were completed in the spring, which provided students with a fuller appreciation of the social, political, and economic dynamics of international soccer and modern-day South Africa.

*Playing the Enemy: Nelson Mandela and the Game that Made a Nation, by John Carlin; Franklin Foer's How Soccer Explains the World; and A History of South Africa, by Leonard Thompson.

Global Sport: a slow but certain recovery

According to a report released May 26 by PricewaterhouseCoopers, the global sports market is showing signs of a recovery from the effects of the 2008-09 recession, with an average annual growth forecast of 3.8% through 2013. Fueled in part by the 2010 World Cup and 2012 Olympic Games, worldwide spending on sport is projected to increase from $114 billion in 2009 to $133 billion in 2013. Click below to read the PwC Report, "Back on Track? The Outlook for the Global Sports Market to 2013."

http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/entertainment-media/pdf/Global-Sports-Outlook.pdf

South Africa Awaits!

The excitement is building! This Friday will mark the two-week countdown to the World Cup kick off on June 11 . . . and we will be at the Opening Ceremonies and first match between South Africa and Mexico in the brand new Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg! Dan Covell and I were lucky to experience the first Olympics in China, and in a few days -- along with 11 Western New England College students -- we will bear witness to the first World Cup in all of Africa!

Mile-High Stadiums

Even though none of the South African venues is anywhere near FIFA's high-altitude limit of 2,500 meters (8,200 feet), the Johannesburg stadiums -- Soccer City (at left) and Ellis Park -- are at 1,753 meters (5,751 feet), which is more than a mile in elevation!

USA-Czech Mates!

Western New England College Sport Management faculty members (left to right) Curt Hamakawa, Sharianne Walker, Harvey Shrage, and Dan Covell attended the May 25 USA-Czech Republic friendly at Rentschler Field in East Hartford. (The Czechs beat a mostly second-line USA side, 4-2.)

Muchas Gracias, Alumni Association!

On behalf of the "travel team," I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Western New England College Alumni Association, President Mat Nelson '93, Alumni Relations Director Kathy Pappas G'98, and the members of the Grants Committee for providing us with a generous grant to help defray costs of this trip. While we met with some unanticipated expenses, this support will enable us to keep to our original plan without eliminating programming and/or assessing students additional fees. THANK YOU, ALUMs!

Tim Conrod's Parallel Blog is Live!

For a different -- or at least another -- perspective on the lead up to, actual trip, and aftermath of "Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa," I invite you to check out Tim Conrod's blog at http://www.wnecworldcup2010.blogspot.com/ He promises to feature highlights (and perhaps even some hijinks) of the delegation's experiences . . . although Golden Bear's motto is "What goes on the road, stays on the road!"

http://wnecworldcup2010.blogspot.com/

ESPN . . . the Place to Be!

In the U.S., ESPN owns the broadcast rights to the 2010 FIFA World Cup (to be staged June 11 to July 11), and will provide match coverage on ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC. In addition, audio listeners will be able to hear live broadcasts of every game on ESPN Radio. ESPN has been heavily promoting the World Cup in broadcast, digital, and print media, and you can find comprehensive information and see some really outstanding video segments -- including vignettes on every team -- on its website.

Introducing . . . Zakumi!

In case you were wondering . . . the official mascot of the 2010 World Cup -- Zakumi -- is a humanized leopard with green hair! Cute, perhaps, but it has nothing on Golden Bear!

Pre-World Cup Friendlies

Tomorrow, May 25, USA will face off against the Czech Republic at Rentschler Field in East Hartford in the first of two stateside friendlies dubbed the "Send-off Series." On May 29, the team will play Turkey at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Then on June 5 in South Africa, USA and Australia will tangle on the pitch in a final tune-up friendly for both World Cup-bound sides in Roodepoort, a suburb of Johannesburg.

2010 World Cup Host Cities

From the layout of the host cities across South Africa, you can see why we chose Pretoria (Tshwane) as our home base . . . we are within easy driving distance to Johannesburg (40 miles) and Rustenburg (70 miles), and this decision will permit us to visit three cities and attend matches in four venues over a mere six days!

Fantastic Four!

Sometimes, you just get lucky. At this summer's World Cup, we feel like we hit the jackpot, having scored tickets to the June 11 opening ceremonies and kick-off match between South Africa and Mexico in Johannesburg/Soccer City. Then, on June 12, we will trek over to Rustenburg for the highly anticipated match between England and USA. On June 15, we will head back to Johannesburg/Ellis Park to see five-time World Cup champion Brazil take on North Korea, and finally on June 16, we'll get a second look at South Africa, this time against Uruguay in Pretoria. Can you believe it? We could not have gotten a better draw for the time that we will be there!

South Africa at a Glance

Name: Republic of South Africa

Gained Independence: 1910 (from UK)

Land Mass: 471,443 square miles (slightly smaller than combined size of Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico)

Borders: Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Swaziland; with Lesotho wholly contained within the territory of South Africa

Per Capita Income: $10,243

Languages: 11 official and eight unofficial, but primarily spoken are Zulu, Xhosa, and Afrikaans

Currency: South African Rand (ZAR), current trading at approx. $0.127 or $1 = 7.85 ZAR

Population: 49.3 million (79% Black, 9% White, 9% Colored, 3% Asian)

Capital: Pretoria

FIFA World Cup: June 11-July 11, 2010

Expected Tourists: 350,000

No. Countries: 32

No. Matches: 64

No. Cities: 9 (Johannesburg, Rustenburg, Pretoria, Cape Town, Durban, Polokwane, Nelspruit, Port Elizabeth, and Bloemfontein)

No. Venues: 10 (two in Johannesburg)

No. Tickets: 2.5 million sold to date out of 3 million available

Seating Capacity of Johannesburg-Soccer City (venue for World Cup Final Match): 94,700

The Great Match

If you'd like to watch an interesting movie about the power of sport -- in this case, soccer -- to affect even the most remote inhabitants of the planet . . . then you should check out "The Great Match."

http://www.hulu.com/watch/76524/the-great-match

Review available at http://www.filmmovement.com/filmcatalog/index.asp?MerchandiseID=95

Got (Face) Paint?

Ordinarily, the only real essentials for international travel are a passport, tickets, and spending money. But we're talking the World Cup here, sports fans . . . so students are reminded to bring their face paint!

The 16th Man

If you haven't already seen it, you might be interested in viewing "The 16th Man," an ESPN documentary about Nelson Mandela's brilliant plan to foment national unity in post-apartheid South Africa through his open embrace of the mostly white Springboks national team leading up to the 1995 Rugby World Cup in Johannesburg, and the emotional transformations on both sides of the racial divide.

Where (exactly) in the World is South Africa?

The Republic of South Africa is located at the southern tip of the African continent, and is bordered by Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Swaziland; while the independent country of Lesotho is wholly contained within the territory of South Africa.

Golden Bear

"GB" has been sitting around and waiting (im)patiently since returning from China in 2008, and is anxious to join the Western New England College CISB delegation as its official mascot for "Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa" when the group departs from campus on June 8 at 5 a.m.! Ally Ostler will be GB's head bear keeper/chaperone!

Dr. Dan Covell

Dr. Dan Covell is my Western New England College colleague who has been leading the seminar stateside this spring and will continue to do so in country this summer. He accompanied me on the CISB's first international trip -- Seminar Abroad 2008: Beijing Olympics -- and will again serve as faculty chaperone to the World Cup. Dr. Covell, who has been known to subsist on Diet Coke, splits his time between homes in Concord, MA, and Brunswick, ME.

Sean Healey

Going to the World Cup has long been a dream of Sean's and he will soon have his chance! Sean is from Portland, CT, and although he has never been outside the USA, he is intrigued by the melting pot of cultures that will be present in South Africa this summer.

Shawn Fitzpatrick

Shawn, who along with his brother Dave, and fellow travelers Nick Starr and Sean Healey, all play soccer for the Golden Bears of Western New England College, under the guidance of Coach Erin Sullivan. Since Shawn is game to experiencing a new culture and trying new foods, maybe we'll get him to sample some kudu (antelope) or crocodile while in South Africa!

Nick Starr

Along with Dave Quackenbush, Nick was the first to sign up for Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa! In fact, he and Dave wanted me to know that they were definitely "in" even before the announcement and application were posted! Nick is from Somers, CT, and has previously traveled to Costa Rica.

Spencer Severs

Spencer is from Woodstock, CT, and a little-known fact about him is that he was born in Colombia. Even though he loves to play and watch ice hockey and rugby, he is looking forward to seeing the very best of international soccer at the 2010 World Cup.

Michael Jones

Michael is from Stone Ridge, NY, and besides attending the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, he already has his sights on someday visiting New Zealand, Egypt, and China. As a tennis player, Michael hopes to attend the four major Tennis Opens (so it is curious that he left off Australia, France, and the UK from his country list!).

Dave Quackenbush

Dave, who is from East Hampton, CT, has already been to Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, England, Scotland, and Brazil; and besides being a soccer aficionado, he signed up for this trip because wants to be able to say that he went to South Africa to witness the first World Cup on the continent! He's counting down the days . . . .

Dan Gould

Dan is from Newton, MA, and spent the spring 2010 semester in Australia on a study-abroad program. A little known fact about Dan is that he loves to cook . . . which I guess qualifies him to be the delegation chef! (Memo to DG: start researching some good "potjiekos" recipes!)

Tim Conrod

Tim's first trip outside the USA -- and for that matter, anywhere on an airplane -- will be this summer to South Africa to attend the FIFA World Cup! Now, how cool is that! Tim is from Bristol, CT, and will doing the "Golden Bear Blog" . . . stay tuned for web address!

Kevin Shaker

Kevin is an avid soccer fan and is looking forward to seeing his first World Cup live, up close, and in person! He is from North Adams, MA, and is majoring in communication.

Ally Ostler

Ally is from Sharon, Vermont, and for someone who is dreading the 13-hour flight from JFK to Dubai and the 8-hour connecting flight to Johannesburg . . . she LOVES to travel abroad, and has already been to Germany, Austria, Italy, and Ireland! Next stop: South Africa via the United Arab Emirates!

Dave Fitzpatrick

Dave, who hails from Burnt Hills, NY, is a self-described soccer fanatic who has played and followed the sport from when he was little. He, too, is well traveled, having already visited Italy, Germany, Austria, and Canada.

Photo-Op with the Dean

Several members of the CISB "traveling squad" presented School of Business Dean Julie Siciliano with a delegation t-shirt. From left, Prof. Curt Hamakawa with Western New England College soccer players Nick Starr, Shawn Fitzpatrick, and Sean Healey.

Last Day of Classes

On May 7, student members of "Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa" held their wrap-up session -- the last of a series of orientation/planning meetings this spring -- prior to leaving campus for the summer.

US to World: FIFA World Cup? Ho Hum.

The most popular sport in the world is football, but it's not the football that Americans know and love. Rather, it is what the rest of the world calls football, and what we Yanks call "soccer." For some reason, the sport that most of the civilized world celebrates and reveres, culminating in the quadrennial tournament known as the FIFA World Cup, barely evokes a collective yawn in the U.S. To be fair, most Americans are familiar with soccer, because many have played some level of the game in their youth. But our interest in the sport seemingly wanes as we grow into adulthood. For Americans, soccer simply does not register a following anywhere near that of football, basketball, and baseball. Which raises the question, "Why not?" Perhaps it's because the "Big Three" are hoarding all the media attention and there's precious little left for other sports. Or maybe it's because we Yanks have an attitude that if we can't be the best in the world, then we don't want to have anything to do with it. For those who do care, however, 2010 is one of those once-in-every-four-years years, and between June 11 and July 11 the FIFA World Cup will be played out in ten stadiums across nine cities throughout South Africa, making its debut appearance on the continent. Team USA, which qualified for its sixth consecutive and 11th World Cup overall, is grouped with England, Algeria, and Slovenia. It should be an exciting tournament . . . if anyone stateside is interested.

Seminar Abroad 2010: Delegation Roster

I will post more information later, but for now, here's the travel roster:

Students

Tim Conrod (Bristol, CT)

Dave Fitzpatrick (Ballston Lake, NY)

Shawn Fitzpatrick (Ballston Lake, NY)

Dan Gould (West Newton, MA)

Sean Healey (Portland, CT)

Mike Jones (Stone Ridge, NY)

Ally Ostler (Sharton, VT)

Dave Quackenbush (Mid. Haddam, CT)

Spencer Severs (Woodstock, CT)

Kevin Shaker (North Adams, MA)

Nick Starr (Somers, CT)
Faculty
Curt Hamakawa (Wilbraham, MA)

Dan Covell (Concord, MA)

Seminar Abroad 2010: FIFA World Cup/South Africa

This summer, my friend and colleague, Dr. Dan Covell, and I will be taking a group of 11 Western New England College students to South Africa in conjunction with the FIFA World Cup, which will be the first time that soccer's premier event will be played on the African continent. What an experience it will be to visit a country that until 1994 -- when these students were in grade school -- was a global pariah owing to its decades-long, white-supremacist policy. To get a glimpse of Nelson Mandela's grand strategy using sport in an attempt to unify his fellow countrymen in the post-apartheid era, I recommend viewing Clint Eastwood's "Invictus," starring Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon (which I saw last night), as well as reading the book of the same title by John Carlin.

Copenhagen Post Script

A couple thoughts occurred to me last night on my return to the states that perhaps were contributing factors to Chicago's emphatic defeat in its bid to host the 2016 Olympics. First, the point touched upon by the IOC member from Pakistan -- Syed Shahid Ali -- in his question to the Chicago delegation. He raised the issue of the difficulty that some foreign travelers have in entering the U.S., and how such inconvenient burdens can be mitigated. Forget about foreign travelers! It took me an elapsed time of one hour and 20 minutes from the time of my flight's arrival at Washington-Dulles to the time I finally cleared customs, passport control, luggage transfer, and security screening to be on my way to catch my connecting flight! By contrast, it must have taken all of ten minutes (okay, maybe 15) to clear the gauntlet at the Copenhagen Airport. Also, while the IOC could not help but be smitten by President and Mrs. Obama's visit, there is no question that the paralysis caused by the heightened security throughout the entire city -- from the airport to hotels, and from transportation to the convention center itself -- attributable to his attendance (and to be fair, to other government leaders as well) wreaked havoc on the usual protocols, which surely conjured thoughts of yankee imperialism among some IOC members. In retrospect, me thinks that these were not so small factors in at least some voters' minds.

Hej Hej, Copenhagen!

It is now mid morning Sunday in Copenhagen, and I must shortly board my return flight home so that I can be in class Monday morning. Spending the last few days at the IOC Session and Olympic Congress has been exhilarating, if not exhausting. In addition to witnessing the final presentations of the four cities competing to host the 2016 Olympics -- all star-studded and superbly choreographed -- and the suspense-filled announcement of Rio de Janeiro as the winner, I had the opportunity to meet many of my friends and colleagues from the Olympic movement. At least five members of the CISB advisory board were here, and I had the chance to visit with them all: Ron Froehlich, president of the World Games; Greg Harney, president of Global Sports Partners; Dick Palmer, executive vice president of the British Olympic Association; Kostas Georgiadis, dean of the International Olympic Academy; and Ichiro Kono, chair and CEO of Tokyo 2016 bid committee. And yes, the Danish have been absolutely splendid . . . both the pastry and the people!

Copenhagen Wrap Up

The atmostphere here at the Olympic Congress the day after Rio de Janeiro became the newest Olympic city is akin to the day after a classic, down-to-the-wire political election. The loser has retreated to his home to lick his wounds, while the victor is visible and milling about, but attempting to be gracious in his joy and exult.

The remainder of the IOC program is anticlimactic. Oh, there's IOC President Jacques Rogge's re-election for a further four years, the vote to add golf and rugby sevens to the Olympic program beginning in 2016, and the election of new members to the IOC and its executive board. Ho hum.

A Few Lessons Learned

1. First and foremost, if you're going to play, you've got to know the rules of the game. Garnering just 18 votes out of 94 cast is not a strong indication of a mastery of the game. Next time, get a good, reliable whip (vote getter-counter) and no-nonsense enforcer to keep the friendlies firmly in the stable.

2. There are no presidential coattails in IOC politics. But perish the thought of Chicago's vote count if President Obama stuck with his original plan and stayed home. Chicago's humiliating first-round ouster sealed the deal for future presidential interventions. Never again will a U.S. president petition the IOC in person in support of an American city's bid.

3. This bid city business is not for the faint hearted or for those not willing to spend a ton of money in a risky proposition. Chicago's reported expenditure of USD 50 million amounts to nearly USD 3 million per vote!

UN Secretary General Opens Congress

At this morning's opening session of the 13th Olympic Congress, UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon gave the keynote address, drawing an analogy between the 205 National Olympic Committees and the UN as international organizations that seek to improve human conditions throughout the world.

About 1,200 delegates from the Olympic family, including International Federations and National Olympic Committees, as well as coaches, trainers, academics, medical specialists and representatives of the public, NGOs and the media are attending the three-day Congress. Their recommendations will be forwarded to the decision-making bodies of the IOC and other relevant stakeholders.

Recommendations-->
http://www.olympic.org/Documents/Conferences_Forums_and_Events/2009_Olympic_Congress/Olympic_Congress_Recommendations.pdf

Morning After

Reflecting overnight on the results of the IOC voting that awarded the 2016 Olympics to Rio de Janeiro, my opinion is that Chicago's first-round elimination was neither a rebuke of President Obama (because he and the First Lady were genuinely and warmly embraced here in Copenhagen) nor a referendum on Chicago's bid per se, but rather, a combination of other factors.

1. The simmering angst over the USOC's disproportionate share of revenue from worldwide Olympic sponsors (20%) and the U.S. television broadcast rights fee (12.75%) -- that has been a longstanding source of irritation for the IOC and virtually the entire Olympic family -- reached a boiling point last spring . . . and the pot is still roiling at full boil.

2. The USOC's announcement this summer of a new U.S. Olympic Network that raised the ire of IOC bigwigs in Lausanne because of potential legal and contractual issues that the IOC claims would affect its existing relationship with NBC. The USOC backed down and postponed the launch until later this year, but the damage was already done.

3. The chronic instability of USOC leadership in the top volunteer (chairman) and paid staff (CEO) positions, that saw yet another changeover of both posts within the past year.

4. The ineffectual lobbying of the American IOC members in persuading enough of their breathren to vote for Chicago.

It seems that the home office in Colorado Springs underestimated the IOC's discontent -- if not outright contempt -- toward the USOC, and unfortunately for Chicago, it's bid was the collateral damage.

IOC Vote Post-Mortem

The round-by-round voting is as follows:

Rio de Janeiro 26-46-66
Madrid 28-29-32
Tokyo 22-20
Chicago 18

The results of the IOC voting for the host city of the 2016 Olympics illustrate the utter unpredictability of this exercise. In the last week, most pundits, including supposed "insiders," called it a two-horse race between Chicago and Rio. Even I was off the mark, speculating about a month ago that Tokyo would prevail over Rio.

In the first round, the votes were fairly well distributed, with no city clearly showing its strength. But in the IOC's system of dropping the low vote getter, it appears that virtually all of Chicago's first-round voters threw their support to Rio. (This is understandable, given that the USA and Brazil are in the same hemispheric association, and was likely a gesture of continental solidarity.)

Like New York City four years earlier, Tokyo actually lost votes from the first to the second round, but its trailing margin of loss to Madrid was fairly significant at nine. Interestingly, it appears that most, if not all, of Tokyo's second-round voters migrated to Rio. (The round-by-round tallies differ slightly because IOC members are not permitted to vote in rounds in which a city of their home country is in contention.)

In round two, Rio opened up a formidable lead over Madrid, 47 to 29, and as noted above, it managed to secure virtually all of Tokyo's freed-up votes. The third round was a decisive victory for Rio -- what politicians call a mandate -- because it was not at all close, as many predicted it would be.

While Rio won the battle, it may rue the day as it realizes the crushing economic burden it inherited by winning the Olympic lottery. You see, Rio recently hosted the Pan American Games (2007), and has little more than four years to prepare for the month-long 2014 FIFA World Cup, before turning its attention just two years later to the 2016 Olympics. But optimistically speaking, an Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro should be an extraordinary party for all!

And the winner is . . . Rio de Janeiro!

Jubilation, heartbreak, relief, and shock. Rio is exulting in the joy of its victory; Madrid is morose with despair over getting so close, but not claiming the prize in its fourth consecutive attempt in 16 years; Tokyo knew it would take a miracle to win, and was grateful that it was not the first city to be eliminated; and Chicago is in utter disbelief that even with President and Michelle Obama's full-court press, it finished dead last! This, my friends, is the world of international politics that is the IOC!

Tokyo and Rio

Tokyo's presentation was proficient and efficient, not even utilizing all of its allotted time. Reiterating the praise of the IOC evaluation commission for its compact venue plan and ulta-sound finances, bid chairman and CEO Dr. Ichiro Kono acknowledged criticism of the bid's lack of passion by explaining that Japanese people are not accustomed to showing their emotions, but that Tokyo's bid is "full of spirit."

In contrast, Rio's presentation -- headed by Brazilian Olympic Committee president and IOC member, Carlos Nuzman -- was an impassioned plea to "make Olympic history" by sending the Olympics to a new corner of the world where it had not gone before. Nuzman has the singular advantage of being a colleague of the IOC members who will decide the cities' fate, and he has been cultivating these all-important personal relationships for many years.

Up right now: Madrid and its spear carrier, former IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch. Even though Samaranch has been retired since 2001, his influence among IOC members cannot be underestimated, many of whom owe their very membership to his beneficence.

Photo: The Bella Center, where all the action is taking place!

Obama Effect?

Copenhagen, 10:30 a.m. If there was any question of President Obama's impact by coming to Copenhagen and whether he made any difference, the answer is a resounding "Yes, he did!" Even the afterglow is palpable. Most of the IOC members could not help but be moved by his presence and appeal. After Chicago's one-hour presentation, President and Mrs. Obama spent at least 30 minutes personally greeting the IOC members, one by one. And if the buzz and frenzy surrounding their exit from the hall and departure from the convention center are any indication, Chicago has plenty to be confident about. No other personality from any city delegation can compare with Obama's megawatt star power, and if his effect can linger for a few hours until the voting this afternoon, I am persuaded that Chicago will bring home the gold. Presently, Tokyo is giving its presentation, to be followed in the next hours by Rio de Janeiro and Madrid.

Something is Definitely Going on in Denmark

Friday morning, October 2, 2009. In the 10-minute drive from the Copenhagen Airport Hilton to the Bella Center (convention center) where the IOC Session will vote this afternoon on the host city for the 2016 Olympic Games, you could tell that something out of the ordinary was going on. The presence of police along the highway, stationed at every overpass, and positioned on rooftops -- and even in helicopters overhead -- signaled that this was no ordinary event. This event, of course, was not the meeting per se, but rather the arrival of U.S. President Barack Obama via motorcade. There is almost nothing comparable to the spectacle of the arrival of an American president, especially one as globally popular as Obama. A fellow delegate from the U.K. told me that it is like the "second coming of JFK." The good citizens of Copenhagen never knew it's city had so many policemen and policewomen on the force! Shortly, the four cities will give their final pitch to the IOC members, and then wait -- anxiously and nervously -- for the announcement at 6:30 p.m. local time. And we will then learn if the Obama effect is the real deal.

T Minus 24 Hours

Just returned from this evening's opening ceremonies of the 121st IOC Session at Copenhagen's Opera House (photo, left), which was a cultural exhibition of Denmark's finest in music (Danish National Symphony Orchestra), dance (Royal Danish Ballet), and song (Danish National Girls Choir).

Today's Copenhagen Post, the local English daily, handicapped it for the U.S. and Brazilian candidates, with headlines asking "Will the Obamas take it home?" or "Will Rio be dancing in the sand?" No mention of Madrid or Tokyo.

And coincidentally -- or not -- at tonight's opening ceremonies, Brazil's President Lula da Silva and First Lady Michelle Obama made separate entrances to take their seats (about five minutes apart) to a torrent of camera flashes and craning necks. Again, no commotion for Tokyo and Madrid.

By this time tomorrow, the suspense will be over. As one IOC member put it, "I know my decision and I'll be glad when it's over." Me too.

Dateline Copenhagen

There's definitely a lot of electricity -- and nervous energy -- in the air here in Copenhagen as representatives of the four cities vying to host the 2016 Olympics seek to button hole IOC members for last-minute lobbying before the October 2 vote.

Most of the glitterati are already here, with President Obama expected to arrive early Friday morning. It's anybody's guess whether presidents, prime ministers, and even kings, can turn the table on this winner-take-all competition. But in a system where one or two votes can be the difference between winning the gold or going home empty handed, nothing can be left to chance.

Amazingly, the mother of all city-hosting jackpots will come down to the decisions of the hundred or so IOC members, most of whom are faceless and unfamiliar to all but serious Olympicologists and avid IOC vote hunters. This conclave of IOC members comes from just 78 out of 205 countries, with 23 countries having more than one member. Thus, the vast majority of countries are completely disenfranchised in IOC voting.

Another fascinating dynamic is the exorbitant expense. Collectively, bid cities expend hundreds of million dollars -- Chicago reportedly spent USD 50 million -- over a two-year campaign for the right to compete for the chance of possibly hosting an upcoming Olympics. By contrast, the NCAA at a meeting in a hotel room earlier this month awarded the men's basketball championship (Final Four) to three cities for 2011, 2012, ad 2012. Just like that.

Tomorrow's program will consist of finely tuned one-hour presentations, in which each of the four cities will have a final opportunity to persuade IOC members to their cause. Chicago is first up, followed by Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro, and Madrid. There are nearly 1,000 accredited media representatives covering this spectacle, and the announcement, which will be made at 6:30 p.m. (12:30 p.m. Eastern), is expected to be watched live on television by an estimated one billion people. Stay tuned.