Four years ago, the IOC awarded the 2012 Olympic Games to London over Paris, by a vote of 54-50. In the first round, four cities -- London, Paris, Madrid and New York -- were separated by a single vote. Madrid, which finished third overall, was actually the top vote getter in the second round, after Moscow was eliminated on the opening ballot. Round-by-round tallies suggest that the lion's share of Moscow's supporters migrated to Madrid, probably owing to the fact that IOC patriarch and stalwart behind Madrid's bid -- Juan Antonio Samaranch -- previously served as Spain's ambassador to Moscow. In round 3, however, London clearly came out ahead of Paris in splitting New York's supporters. Going into the last round, London already enjoyed a six-vote lead over Paris, which was the cushion it needed to emerge victorious, because Madrid's votes were closely split between Paris (17) and London (15).
London: 22-27-39-54
Paris: 21-25-33-50
Madrid: 20-32-31
New York: 19-16
Moscow: 15
For 2016, there are just four cities in the running -- Chicago, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo -- and since IOC voting is subject to all the vagaries of palace intrigue, it is impossible to know which city will prevail after three rounds. One thing for sure is that it will go down to the wire, and for Chicago's sake the result may hinge on whether IOC members are smitten by President Obama's charm offensive. That is, if he even makes it to Copenhagen.
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