IOC Vote Post-Mortem

The round-by-round voting is as follows:

Rio de Janeiro 26-46-66
Madrid 28-29-32
Tokyo 22-20
Chicago 18

The results of the IOC voting for the host city of the 2016 Olympics illustrate the utter unpredictability of this exercise. In the last week, most pundits, including supposed "insiders," called it a two-horse race between Chicago and Rio. Even I was off the mark, speculating about a month ago that Tokyo would prevail over Rio.

In the first round, the votes were fairly well distributed, with no city clearly showing its strength. But in the IOC's system of dropping the low vote getter, it appears that virtually all of Chicago's first-round voters threw their support to Rio. (This is understandable, given that the USA and Brazil are in the same hemispheric association, and was likely a gesture of continental solidarity.)

Like New York City four years earlier, Tokyo actually lost votes from the first to the second round, but its trailing margin of loss to Madrid was fairly significant at nine. Interestingly, it appears that most, if not all, of Tokyo's second-round voters migrated to Rio. (The round-by-round tallies differ slightly because IOC members are not permitted to vote in rounds in which a city of their home country is in contention.)

In round two, Rio opened up a formidable lead over Madrid, 47 to 29, and as noted above, it managed to secure virtually all of Tokyo's freed-up votes. The third round was a decisive victory for Rio -- what politicians call a mandate -- because it was not at all close, as many predicted it would be.

While Rio won the battle, it may rue the day as it realizes the crushing economic burden it inherited by winning the Olympic lottery. You see, Rio recently hosted the Pan American Games (2007), and has little more than four years to prepare for the month-long 2014 FIFA World Cup, before turning its attention just two years later to the 2016 Olympics. But optimistically speaking, an Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro should be an extraordinary party for all!