Saturday, May 26, 2018

Business Analytics vs. Paul, Harry and Achilles

Analysts at UBS, the Swiss global financial services firm, has declared Germany to win it all based on results of the past five World Cups, followed by Brazil (2nd), Spain (3rd), and England (4th), adding the obligatory disclaimer that "past performance is no guarantee of future results."  For the 2014 World Cup, Goldman Sachs' predictions -- based on a statistical model relying on data from international football matches since 1960 -- were bested by an animal oracle, Paul the Octopus.  This year, the BBC is relying on Harry the Otter, a Russian-based creature that predicted winners at the 2014 Sochi Olympics with 75% accuracy.  Then there is the deaf cat at the Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg named Achilles, that picked every winner except for one at last year's Confederations Cup.  So there you have it.  You can place your bets based on fancy prediction models of professional number crunchers or rely on base animal instincts (literally)!

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